Perspective - September 2014
By: Rich Checkan
I am fortunate in that my job affords me the opportunity to travel a fair amount to attend any number of financial seminars throughout the course of a year. This allows me to hear presentations from some of the most respected people in the financial services industry.
And, the more I hear, the more I am convinced the current economic environment is a mystery to most.
For instance, I attended a precious metals conference in New York this past May. At that conference, I heard a presentation from one of the most passionately followed gold bugs alive. His prediction at the time was for gold to break-out decisively to the upside by the end of July.
With Labor Day behind us, I wonder if he will revise his prediction to July of 2015.
A month ago, another pundit with incredible credentials made the call the bottom was in for the gold price. He said we had already seen the bottom in gold prices when it touched and moved up from $1,281 per ounce.
Within two weeks, we were trading in the $1,270's.
It makes me wonder how they remain so popular when they are wrong about this market over and over again. It seems their short-term predictions are more about what they hope will occur as opposed to what they can accurately predict.
Ultimately, I believe the issue is their horizon. The common thread in all these ill-made calls for the precious metals market is they are all short-term predictions. And, in my opinion, that's the problem.
Those of you who have read our newsletter over the years have heard this from me before. In the short-term, markets can confound you. They are driven by short-term noise. Sound bites from central bankers and news from across the globe all have short-term effects on the markets. But, this short-term noise is not what drives long-term market trends.
Fundamentals drive long-term trends.
This is precisely why we stay out of the business of short-term predictions. After all, we are not building our portfolios for prosperity in a month or two. Rather, we are building diversified portfolios for growth and purchasing power protection over the long haul.
Rather than hang on Janet Yellen's next testimony for investment direction, I look at long-term trends such as...
- In the past 100 years since the creation of the Federal Reserve, the mismanaged U.S. dollar has lost over 96% of its purchasing power...with most of that loss occurring once President Nixon broke the tie between the U.S. dollar and gold.
- Throughout history, no fiat currency has stood the test of time. They all eventually succumb to inflationary pressures as governments grow in size and lose touch with the needs of the people.
- For thousands of years, gold and silver are the only two forms of money to effectively hold value and esteem - mainly because they require no human management to do so. They are intrinsically valuable.
My horizon is not next week, next month nor the end of this year. Instead, my horizon is for the rest of my life and for the rest of my children's lives.
As a result, I don't try to out-think or over-think the markets. I don't need to fully understand why the gold price is not exploding with all the unrest in the world today. I don't need to know exactly when a QE-inflated stock market will eventually correct. I don't really care when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or how high they will raise them.
None of this changes the fact that gold and other precious metals rank right up there with real estate and rare tangible assets for long-term purchasing power protection.
So, rather than hoping I acted in time on the latest short-term prophecy of some guru, I quietly and steadily amass real assets whenever possible.
With gold and silver trading at their costs of production, I see now as a good time to pick some up. Why not? They can get cheaper from here, but it isn't sustainable if they do. No business can survive by selling their products indefinitely for a price lower than they cost to produce.
Seriously consider averaging in here.
And, don't worry. I'm not wearing a cheerleader's outfit. I'm not saying do this now or forever lose the ability to do so. That's just nonsense.
For thousands of years, precious metals have stored purchasing power as fiat currencies have lost purchasing power. The long-term trend is in your favor. Time is on your side. Start quietly and steadily accumulating precious metals and rare tangible assets.
I am certain you, your children and your grandchildren will be glad you took the necessary steps to Keep What's Yours!