Latest Gold Report Heralds a Bull Market

By Rich Checkan

You may remember Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Founder of Incrementum Asset Management and author of In Gold We Trust, from our previous interviews with him. Ronald has just published the 11th Edition of the In Gold We Trust Report, and we’ll be discussing the shattering flaws caused by the current economic euphoria and how we may very well be in a gold bull market.

Rich: In your 11th edition on the state of the economy and the prospects for the future, you use the term monetary surrealism to describe the present situation. Can you elaborate?

Ronald: I refer to the strategies used by Central Banks to create false liquidity by simply printing money. In the first quarter of 2017, the world's largest Central Banks created the equivalent of 1 trillion U.S. dollars. This liquidity supernova allowed investors to pump billions into equities, forming the illusion of prosperity, to which we seem addicted. Rich: You report we are in the earliest stages of a gold boom. Can you connect the dots between your premise and the actions of Central Banks?

Ronald: Everything seems rosy when you manipulate the economy, but the moment there is a printed money pullback, we will have recession. Analyst Jesse Felder—founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report—calls the current euphoria “an everything bubble.” When this happens, gold will be king. It is for this reason that we say: This is already the moment for gold.

Rich: The Federal Reserve seems so confident in the economy that it plans to raise interest rates. Won’t better rates turn some investors away from gold?

Ronald: The Fed is ignoring any possibility of recession. But, it knows the truth. In Q1 2017, the economy expanded by only 1.2%, with 2% inflation. These hikes are a gesture to show false confidence, and we believe rate increases will only be temporary. Remember this—since 1914 there have been 19 rate times like these; 16 of them were followed by recession.

Rich: Despite your recessionary stance, how do you explain the position of most analysts that the stock market will continue to boom?

Ronald: Out of 89 analysts at the big banks, whose opinion is followed and published by Bloomberg, none of them predict a recession in the next three years. Why? They are all in stocks. The ratio of financial assets to real assets like gold and tangibles is the lowest since 1925! This myopia will only deepen the crisis when it occurs, and it will be an interesting moment for gold.

Rich: The Federal Reserve uses different types of ‘fiscal stimulus’ to prevent recession. Won’t they be able to prevent another recession?

Ronald: The strategies get more and more desperate. The Federal Reserve may actually buy stocks as did the Japanese, to avoid a crisis. This can only worsen our economy. In any healthy economy, recessions are normal and make us stronger. The longer we avoid recession, the more disastrous the next burst of the bubble will be.

Rich: How do you think people have responded to the current economic climate?

Ronald: There is a rise of popularism throughout the globe. We see this as a symptom of disenfranchisement, of an economy not doing well for the majority. It is a disturbing fact that between 2005 and 2014 in the United States, three quarters of the households had stagnating income. It is a bad sign when people vote for change. The wealthy investors are propping up the market, but they don't understand what's happening in rural areas. Despite market euphoria, these are not good times.

Rich: What does the present rise of popularism and market euphoria mean for gold?

Ronald: The present euphoria is based on soft data and economic confidence. But the hard data, like tax receipts, are very weak. When there is such a gap between what is really happening and what investors think is happening, it's time to buy gold. You need to shore up the crisis side of your portfolio.

Rich: In your report, you include a must-read chapter citing Trump, Pence, and an interview with Dr. Judy Shelton, advisor to Trump’s economic transition team and Director of Sound Money Project at the Atlas Network. Can you give us a brief overview?

Ronald: Vice President Pence made a wonderful speech on the importance of sound money. Trump himself speaks of the flaws in the U.S. dollar and a centralized system. He believes that to re-industrialize the United States, we need to weaken the U.S. dollar.

Gold flourishes when the dollar is weak and inflation is high. We have heard President Trump say he would like to increase inflation by 45%. This means rising prices for the average man and rising gold prices for the smart investor. It could also mean stagflation, inflation with low growth. This is what happened in the 1970s. It was a terrible decade for investors and the best for gold.

Dr. Shelton alludes to a “dependable dollar” and has submitted a proposal for a gold-linked treasury bond. An administration that connects monetary policy to real economics and seeks a weakened dollar to promote trade leaves gold in a desirable position for investors against the dollar.

Rich: Let's address the elephant in the room. Gold has not skyrocketed this year, but equities have taken off. Do you see a turnaround coming?

Ronald: Yes, gold is cheap right now. But, last year commodities made a turnaround, mining companies learned to operate most efficiently, and we are in the very early stages of a new bull market in gold. On average, gold is up 5.88% since the beginning of the year, and the influx of gold into ETFs is increasing since 2016. Investors must have the foresight to buy early before the herd.

Rich: You also touch on Bitcoin in your report. What is its relevance to gold?

Ronald: Bitcoin and other digital trading units are competitive alternatives to fiat currency. That's a positive development in our estimation for gold. It shows that in general, there is less confidence in money printed by governments than ever before. Bitcoin may be a game changer for which gold is the role model. But, they are two separate asset classes. Bitcoin’s $66 billion cannot compare to gold’s $7 trillion market capitalization. That makes gold the alternative currency of choice for conservative investors to steady their portfolio, while Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are part of your risk dynamic.

Rich: Let’s talk about Black Swans and Gray Swans—unexpected events that herald a rise in gold.

Ronald: First, look at artificial asset price inflation, consumer debt, and stagnating tax revenues—all of which spell recession. These represent the unimaginable Black Swan for most. Then, there is the Grey Swan of China facing a credit crisis. When turmoil happens in any country, gold shines. As I believe your readers will see in the year to come, these Black and Grey Swans are likely, and all point to the value of gold, now.

As Stoeferle argues, the current economic climate and the strength of the U.S. dollar suggest another recession could be on the way. One of the best ways to protect yourself and your loved ones from economic downturn is with gold. Throughout the centuries, gold has always been a reliable and valuable source of wealth worldwide. If we look to the past as a reference, we could very well be on our way to another economic shift.

For an exclusive copy of Ronald’s report, click here, or if you would like to discuss how you can protect your portfolio now with gold, call your ASI Preferred Client Relations representative at 800-831-0007 or email us.